Apex Matrix V5: HMM & Stationarity Core

Apex Matrix V5: HMM & Stationarity Core at a glance

Kind of rule	Averaging down (dollar-cost averaging)
Buys or sells	It can buy, and it can bet on falling prices.
Built on	ADX / DMI, Donchian Channels, EMA, RSI, SMA, Standard deviation, bars since
Where it was published	TradingView, by its author, as a Pine Script strategy
Tested on	13 cells: 13 coins, October 2021 to June 2026, no fee
Trades placed	none
Page updated	2026-11-08

Apex Matrix V5: HMM & Stationarity Core backtest results, every cell

There is no cloud of cells to draw. The frame below says why.

How Apex Matrix V5: HMM & Stationarity Core works

Rules in this group usually work like this. When a buy goes the wrong way, it buys more, so the average price moves closer to the market. Most of the closed trades then look like small wins. The losses are rare and large, and they show up when price keeps falling. The next paragraph is this particular rule, which can be narrower than the group.

It can buy, and it can bet on falling prices. It acts only when several checks agree at once. It leans on DMI, EMA, RSI, SMA; those names are explained on their own pages, further down. The exact line is in the list below, in the author's names, and you can skip that list. When it enters, it also sets a stop or a target, so a trade can close without a new signal.

The author did not set a size, so each trade uses whatever amount the code assumes. It can stack up to 10 trades in the same direction.

The exact condition, from the code

Same rule, translated from the code, in the author's names. You can skip this list if the paragraph above was enough.

• Enters long when long trigger and (the bar index − last long) is above Signal Expiry Limit (Bars) (3) and no position is open.
• Enters long when long trigger and (the bar index − last long) is above Signal Expiry Limit (Bars) (3) and not (no position is open) and a long position is open and the close is below the average entry price.
• Enters short when short trigger and (the bar index − last short) is above Signal Expiry Limit (Bars) (3) and no position is open.
• Enters short when short trigger and (the bar index − last short) is above Signal Expiry Limit (Bars) (3) and not (no position is open) and a short position is open and the close is above the average entry price.
• Closes the position when a long position is open and ((the close − the average entry price) / the average entry price) is at or above 0.002 and the close is below the 5-period EMA of the close.
• Closes the position when a short position is open and ((the close − the average entry price) / the average entry price) is at or above 0.002 and the close is above the 5-period EMA of the close.
• Places a stop at (the average entry price × (1 − 0.04)), a target at (the average entry price × (1 + 0.1)) when a long position is open.
• Places a stop at (the average entry price × (1 + 0.04)), a target at (the average entry price × (1 − 0.1)) when a short position is open.

Buys or sells	It can buy, and it can bet on falling prices.
Tools it calculates	ADX / DMI, Donchian Channels, EMA, RSI, SMA, Standard deviation, bars since
A second chart speed	Yes. It also looks at a second chart speed.
Only at certain hours	No.
Adding to a trade	It can stack up to 10 trades in the same direction.
How much it trades	The author did not set a size, so each trade uses whatever amount the code assumes.
Cost the author assumed	The author assumed a trading cost of 0.05 percent per side.

Default settings

The test used the defaults in the middle column. Nothing was turned to help a coin.

Setting	Default	Group
Enable HMM Mechanics & Box Overlay	on
Enable 1-2 Binary Regime Mode	off
Hurst/Fractal Lookback	14
Non-Stationary (Trend) Threshold	0.52
LTF Timeframe (Micro-Structure)	1
OI Exchange 1	BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P_OI	1. Macro & Leverage
OI Exchange 2	BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P_OI	1. Macro & Leverage
OI Exchange 3	OKX:BTCUSDT.P_OI	1. Macro & Leverage
Swing Lookback (Liquidity Pools)	20	2. Liquidity Pools
Signal Expiry Limit (Bars)	3	4. Execution Limits

How the backtest was run

Every strategy was tried the same way, on the settings the author published.

The years are October 2021 to June 2026. The prices are from Bybit, for 13 widely traded coins, mostly on hourly, 4-hour and daily charts, with some faster charts. That was 47,242 tries. The window stored in the files is 2021-09..2026-06.

599 rules produced a finished try. A rule that finished above zero on at least 12 cells, before any fee, was tried again with a fee of 0.12 percent per side. Only buys are counted in that second try. 273 rules got it.

The method, the aggregate results and a downloadable table are on the study page. What the desk does with the results beyond these pages is its own.

Before any fee, it was tried on 13 cells, and it placed no trades.

It was not run a second time with a fee. That second pass happens only when at least 12 cells finished above zero before fees. 273 rules got that pass.

Cells tried	13
Cells that placed a trade	0
Finished above zero	0

Label: backtest · old prices, zero commission · Oct 2021 – Jun 2026. Hypothetical results; see the risk disclosure.

How to read the result

How to read the number

No cell took a trade, so there is no return to read. The rule above is the whole note.

What this does not show

The useful question is the largest loss while the extra buys are still open. A high share of closed wins hides that loss.

There is no cell to single out, and this note does not invent one. Other years, another exchange, or another fee would be a different measurement.

Questions about Apex Matrix V5: HMM & Stationarity Core

Words used on this page

Backtest

The rule was tried on old prices. No real money moved.

Cell

One coin on one chart speed. Bitcoin every 4 hours is one cell. Bitcoin once a day is another.

Chart speed

How often a new price bar is drawn. 15m means every 15 minutes, 1h means hourly, 4h means every 4 hours, 1D means once a day.

Fee, per side

A cost taken each time the rule trades. Per side means once on the way in and once on the way out.

Median

Line the cells up from the biggest loss to the biggest gain. The median is the middle one. Half the cells did better and half did worse.

Drawdown

The deepest fall from a high point along the way, as a percent of the account at that high.

Above zero

The account finished with more than it started.

The indicators Apex Matrix V5: HMM & Stationarity Core uses

Each has its own page: what it measures, how it is read, where it misleads.

• ADX and the directional movement index: how strong the trend is, not which way
• Donchian Channels: the highest high and lowest low, and the breakout rule they define
• Exponential moving average (EMA): what it measures and where it misleads
• RSI (relative strength index): the formula, the 70/30 rule, and why it misleads in trends
• Simple moving average (SMA): the plainest average, and why it still runs half the strategies
• Standard deviation in trading: the volatility measure inside Bollinger Bands and z-scores

"Apex Matrix V5: HMM & Stationarity Core" was published on TradingView by its author, under the author's own license. This page is an independent reading of those rules and of what they did on these old prices. It is not written with the author, and it is not a recommendation. Not every detail survives the translation onto this page, so read the original before you rely on it.